There is exactly one week to go until 20 years have passed since the euro and the dollar were worth the same. And the US jobs data released today came close to failing to reach that date without the European currency falling back to the same level as the US. When the data was released, which showed a vigorous creation of employment, the euro went from being worth 1.0172 dollars to 1.0082, although it later recovered. Because, no matter how much there is talk of a recession in that country, the labor market continues to create more jobs than the private sector anticipates, and the unemployment rate remains at full employment. Meanwhile, Europe is showing more pronounced signs of recession than the US.
In that situation, the unemployment data in June practically eliminated any doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by three quarters of a point on July 27, when the Open Market Committee, which decides monetary policy, returns. to meet. And, at higher rates, higher dollar. The reason is that the United States created 372,000 jobs last month, practically 50% more than expected by the market, according to the television network specializing in financial information CNBC. The unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. And, although wages grew by 5.1%, they did so to a lesser extent than in the month of May. The only negative note was that the workforce fell by a tenth to 62.2%, indicating that fewer Americans are looking for work.
The data runs counter to private-sector forecasts that the United States is headed inescapably toward a recession in 2023 or 2024, though it’s still too early to tell if that will be the case. But, at least for now, they ratify the forecasts of the Federal Reserve and the Joe Biden government of a progressive cooling of price pressures. For this reason, the stock market experienced a moderate drop, since these numbers indicate that, although rates rise three-quarters of a point in July, it is possible that in the fall and winter they will do so less sharply.
In any case, the debt market continues to anticipate a recession. And the historical precedent is not optimistic. The Secretary of the Treasury under Bill Clinton and head of Barack Obama’s team of economic advisers, Lawrence Summers, always repeats that in the last 75 years, every time the birth rate has been below 4% and inflation below 5% , there has been a recession. The CPI for May, which is the last one published, was 8.6%, so with unemployment at 3.6%, the outlook is not very encouraging.
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